Global Top 10 Countries Sales Forecast (Q1 2022)
Global sales up 1.4% to 82.6M units in 2022, full recovery in 2023 or later due to Ukraine conflict
2022/04/22
- Summary
- Commentary by LMC Automotive
Summary
*An updated version of this forecast report will be released every quarter.
-According to an LMC Automotive first quarter 2022 report, global light vehicle sales in 2022 are projected to increase by 1.4% year-on-year to 82.6 million units. The forecast was revised downward by more than 3.4 million units from the previous forecast (of Q4 2021) due to the outbreak of the military invasion of Ukraine and the resulting economic sanctions against Russia, as well as overheated global inflation and concerns of an economic slowdown following resurgence of COVID-19 in China.
-The sales forecasts for the 10 countries mentioned above for 2022 have also been revised downward for most of the countries, with China forecast to reach 25.8 million units, a year-on-year growth rate of only 1.1%. Sales in the U.S. are forecast to increase by 2.6% to 15.3 million units, and in Japan by 1.3% to 4.45 million units, neither of which are expected to reach the pre-COVID-19 levels of 2019. Note that Russia, which is subject to severe sanctions, was the world's 10th largest market in 2021, but sales in 2022 are projected to fall to just over 700,000 units, less than half of the previous year's level.
-Global sales are expected to be in a full-fledged recovery trend from 2023 onward, reaching 90.5 million units in 2023 and 97.0 million units in 2024. The shortage of vehicle supply over the past several years has led to an accumulation of carry-over demand, which is expected to materialize as sales volume as parts shortages and other supply constraints improve and vehicle production returns to normal.
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