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Global Top 10 Countries Sales Forecast (Q3 2026)

Global sales expects to decrease by 4.6% YoY to 88.12M units in 2026, 89,67M units in 2027

2026/10/29

Summary
Commentary by GlobalData

Summary

⋆An updated version of this forecast report will be released every quarter

-According to a report by GlobalData as of Q3 2026, global light vehicle sales in 2026 is expected to decrease by 4.6% YoY to 88.12 mn and decline of 1.4% from the previous report.

-The global LV market outlook has weakened again in the last three months. Global sales are now forecast to fall to 88 mn vehicles in 2026, down nearly 5% YoY. That is 1.2 mn units lower than three months ago, with an average of 0.5 mn units/year taken out of the forecast to 2030. A worsening outlook for China is the main reason for both the downgrade and the negative YoY profile. Weak actuals have pushed China's 2026 forecast down by 2.2 mn units, partly offset by upgrades in India, Western Europe and the Americas. Economies have held up better than expected despite the Middle East conflict, and the global economic outlook is a little brighter for this year. Even so, the conflict continues to hit the Middle East itself, where LV sales are forecast to fall by around a quarter in 2026.
-Beyond the short term, we assume economic growth will recover as energy prices stabilise. The main risk is a renewed escalation of the war in the Middle East, including possible disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Trade frictions are a growing concern too, from US tariffs and the rolling annual reviews of the USMCA to Mexico's plans for higher tariffs on Chinese vehicles. In a more stable macro environment, global sales are forecast to recover to around 92 mn by 2028, with growth continuing as non-mature markets keep up their momentum.

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