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Tesla: Struggling with Slowing U.S. BEV Demand and Intensifying Competition in China
GlobalData sales forecast: Gradual decline from 1.6 million units; promotion of Robotaxi business
2026/01/14
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Summary
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GlobalData Sales Forecast: Tesla sales will decline, but recover around 2030 with the launch of a low-cost model
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Sales trends: Model Y and Model 3 account for over 95% of total sales
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Production trends: Production ramp-up slows down from 2024
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U.S.: BEV sales slowing, BEV market share declining due to an increase in competing models
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China: Intensifying competition in the BEV market
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Europe: Sales increase in Türkiye, but Tesla struggles as German and Chinese manufacturers launch BEV models
Summary
According to GlobalData's forecast, Tesla's global sales volume will gradually decline from 1.6 million units in 2025, with sales expected to increase with the launch of new models around 2030. Tesla's (Tesla, Inc.) pursuit of sales growth has been tempered, with opportunities in the autonomous vehicle (AV) area seen as more attractive.
Based on MarkLines data, Tesla's global production volume grew to 1.883 million units in 2024, up 2.4% year-over-year (y/y), but in the first ten months of 2025, sales volume was 1.374 million units, down 10.4% y/y. The momentum of production and sales numbers so far has been slowing down due to the weakening demand for BEVs in the United States and intensifying competition in the Chinese and European markets.
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| Model Y L launched in China in August 2025 (Source: Tesla) |
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