⋆An updated version of this forecast report will be released every quarter

-According to an LMC Automotive Q1 2022 report, global light vehicle production is forecast to increase 7.1% year-over-year (y/y)  to 82.5 million units in 2022. A recovery from the previous year is expected amid certain improvements in the COVID-19 situation as well as alleviation of the shortage of semiconductors, which have been putting downward pressure on production since 2020. However, due to effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the previous forecast (of Q4 2021) has been revised downward by 3.4 million units.

-Among the major OEM groups, the Toyota Group's global production is projected to be just over 10 million units in 2022, which is close to the pre-COVID-19 level (about 95% of the 2019 level). On the other hand, the Volkswagen Group (No. 2) and Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Group (No. 3), which have large proportions of their production in Europe where the impact of the Russian invasion is strong, are forecast to have their 2022 global production levels remain at about 20% below the 2019 level.

-The full recovery of global production is not expected until after 2023, with 90 million units predicted in 2023 and 96 million units in 2024.