[Vehicle market summary: China outlook for full-year 2013]

2013/10/24

Summary

Sales of January-September 2013 period are 15.88 million units, double-digit increase continues backed by growing demand in inland regions

Vehicle sales in China in the January-September 2013 period based on the shipped volume from local plants grew 12.7% year-over-year to 15,883,000 units. The growth has been accelerated by increasing demand for private cars from the expanding middle-class in inland regions. For seven consecutive months from March to September, monthly sales exceeded the result of the same month previous year. (Please refer to the Figure 2.)  Passenger vehicle sales in the January-September 2013 period increased 14.0% to 12,849,000 units, while commercial vehicle sales rose 7.3% to 3,034,000 units. Sports utility vehicles (SUV), included in the passenger vehicle category, notably expanded sales by 45.3% backed by each OEM’s aggressive product launch.  (Please refer to the Table 1.)



The passenger vehicle market: First place VW continues great strides, Ford increases sales by 70%...

As for passenger vehicle sales of leading OEM groups in the January-September 2013 period, non-Japanese groups posted outstanding results while Japanese groups remained stagnant. 

First place VW increased passenger vehicle sales 19.3% y/y and expanded market share to 17.9%. Its seven models were included in the top 20 selling models and the OEM extended its advantage over second place GM with strong sales of varied models. Third place Hyundai-Kia kept brisk sales with y/y growth of 23.8% thanks to the Elantra. Ninth place Ford drastically improved sales by 69.9% y/y, mainly boosted by the Focus.  It posted the greatest growth rate in the top 10 groups. As for Chinese groups, tenth place Great Wall Motor increased sales by 36.5%. Strong sales, especially of the Haval SUV, are expanding its market share.      

 Japanese groups stagnated due to consumers’ reluctance in buying Japanese cars after the anti-Japanese demonstrations: sixth place Renault-Nissan dropped sales by 1.7%, seventh place Toyota fell by 3.0% and eighth place Honda increased slightly by 4.6%.



Full-year sales in 2013 forecasted to reach nearly 22 million units

Full-year sales in 2013 are forecasted to almost reach 22 million units.  Backed by expanding investment in real estate, the GDP growth rate for the third quarter (July-September 2013) increased for the first time in three quarters to 7.8% and economic conditions thus show some improvements. As it was reported that the dealers’ inventories in August were the record low of 1.35 months’ worth, wholesales are expected to grow towards the end of this year. Japanese OEMs, which largely dropped sales in the previous year affected by anti-Japanese demonstrations, recovered sales to a great extent in September. This growth is anticipated to continue in October, which is expected to support expansion of the entire market.



Reference materials

(Table1):China Vehicle Sales by Vehicle Type

(unit)

Vehicle TypeQ3 2012
(Jul.-Sep.)
Q3 2013
(Jul.-Sep.)
Y-o-YShare2012 YTD
(Jan.-Sep.)
2013 YTD
(Jan.-Sep.)
Y-o-YShare
Passenger
Vehicles
PC
(Sedan/Hatchback)
2,579,330 2,805,026 8.8% 55.0% 7,810,151 8,646,051 10.7% 54.4%
MPV 119,015 300,340 152.4% 5.9% 367,721 852,950 132.0%(*) 5.4%
SUV 497,380 758,695 52.5% 14.9% 1,437,687 2,088,466 45.3% 13.1%
Minivan 458,937 320,282 -30.2% 6.3% 1,654,902 1,261,567 -23.8%(*) 7.9%
Total 3,654,662 4,184,343 14.5% 82.0% 11,270,461 12,849,034 14.0% 80.9%
Commercial
Vehicles
Mini Truck 117,121 118,852 1.5% 2.3% 397,480 402,903 1.4% 2.5%
Light-duty truck 407,346 438,074 7.5% 8.6% 1,367,042 1,441,544 5.4% 9.1%
Medium-duty truck 60,411 62,062 2.7% 1.2% 200,363 221,402 10.5% 1.4%
Heavy-duty truck 85,596 103,850 21.3% 2.0% 349,219 384,195 10.0% 2.4%
Light-sized bus 87,245 93,561 7.2% 1.8% 250,519 283,003 13.0% 1.8%
Medium-sized bus 24,203 21,829 -9.8% 0.4% 64,655 62,318 -3.6% 0.4%
Large-sized bus 21,005 17,814 -15.2% 0.3% 54,551 55,234 1.3% 0.3%
Semi-trailer 34,362 60,627 76.4% 1.2% 142,197 182,952 28.7% 1.2%
Total 837,289 916,669 9.5% 18.0% 2,826,026 3,033,551 7.3% 19.1%
Grand Total 4,491,951 5,101,012 13.6% 100.0% 14,096,487 15,882,585 12.7% 100.0%

Note)Figures are based on local factory shipments.
(*)Some models were re-classified from Minivan to MPV starting 2013.

(Source:MarkLines)

(Table2):China Passenger Vehicle Sales by Group

(unit)

Group
(Brand)
Q3 2012
(Jul.-Sep.)
Q3 2013
(Jul.-Sep.)
Y-o-YShare2012 YTD
(Jan.-Sep.)
2013 YTD
(Jan.-Sep.)
Y-o-YShare
VW
(VW, Audi, Skoda)
668,040 776,731 16.3% 18.6% 1,922,858 2,294,004 19.3% 17.9%
GM
(Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac, Baojun)
364,543 396,648 8.8% 9.5% 1,078,344 1,207,542 12.0% 9.4%
Hyundai-Kia
(Hyundai, Kia, Shouwang)
342,098 373,118 9.1% 8.9% 949,863 1,175,857 23.8% 9.2%
SAIC Original Brands
(Wuling, Roewe, MG)
321,573 349,244 8.6% 8.3% 1,041,807 1,122,297 7.7% 8.7%
Changan Group Original Brands
(Changan, Hafei, Changhe, Jiangling)
152,306 173,116 13.7% 4.1% 601,645 667,070 10.9% 5.2%
Renault-Nissan
(Nissan, Venucia)
184,305 234,195 27.1% 5.6% 650,872 639,814 -1.7% 5.0%
Toyota
(Toyota)
193,457 209,625 8.4% 5.0% 613,023 594,403 -3.0% 4.6%
Honda
(Honda, Everus, Ciimo)
151,290 186,598 23.3% 4.5% 492,375 515,068 4.6% 4.0%
Ford
(Ford)
102,099 179,568 75.9% 4.3% 274,427 466,248 69.9% 3.6%
Great Wall Motor
(Great Wall, Haval)
125,682 157,073 25.0% 3.8% 335,109 457,415 36.5% 3.6%
Others 1,049,269 1,148,427 9.5% 27.4% 3,310,138 3,709,316 12.1% 28.9%
Total 3,654,662 4,184,343 14.5% 100.0% 11,270,461 12,849,034 14.0% 100.0%

Note)Figures are based on local factory shipments.

(Source:MarkLines)

(Table3):China Top 20 Selling Models for Jan.-Sep 2013

(unit)

Brand Vehicle Type ModelQ3 2012
(Jul.-Sep.)
Q3 2013
(Jul.-Sep.)
Y-o-Y 2012 YTD
(Jan.-Sep.)
2013 YTD
(Jan.-Sep.)
Y-o-Y
Wuling Minivan Wuling Sunshine 115,566 106,864 -7.5% 398,145 367,690 -7.6%
Wuling Minivan Wuling Hongguang 79,642 121,795 52.9% 224,458 339,158 51.1%
VW PC (Sedan/Hatchback) Lavida 56,310 83,396 48.1% 164,317 294,963 79.5%
Ford PC (Sedan/Hatchback) Focus 78,293 101,150 29.2% 187,516 286,847 53.0%
Wuling Minivan Wuling Rongguang 81,107 69,591 -14.2% 283,636 259,252 -8.6%
Toyota PC (Sedan/Hatchback) Corolla/New Corolla 65,024 81,228 24.9% 221,108 226,944 2.6%
Buick PC (Sedan/Hatchback) Excelle 67,794 72,332 6.7% 214,445 219,647 2.4%
VW PC (Sedan/Hatchback) Sagitar 64,729 71,108 9.9% 131,964 208,678 58.1%
Chevrolet PC (Sedan/Hatchback) Sail/New Sail 73,148 57,258 -21.7% 210,802 204,672 -2.9%
Haval SUV Haval H 61,134 75,308 23.2% 156,143 198,366 27.0%
VW PC (Sedan/Hatchback) Jetta 61,345 74,041 20.7% 179,752 187,318 4.2%
Hyundai PC (Sedan/Hatchback) Elantra 37,239 62,968 69.1% 82,108 185,503 125.9%
VW PC (Sedan/Hatchback) New Passat 52,594 53,784 2.3% 152,541 179,753 17.8%
VW PC (Sedan/Hatchback) New Bora 56,769 61,659 8.6% 167,726 177,781 6.0%
Nissan PC (Sedan/Hatchback) Bluebird Sylphy/Sylphy 42,869 59,154 38.0% 96,098 171,463 78.4%
Chevrolet PC (Sedan/Hatchback) Cruze 55,649 62,289 11.9% 173,667 171,363 -1.3%
VW SUV Tiguan 43,236 50,910 17.7% 138,577 151,272 9.2%
Hyundai PC (Sedan/Hatchback) Verna 55,349 42,557 -23.1% 153,976 145,579 -5.5%
VW PC (Sedan/Hatchback) Magotan 46,102 48,710 5.7% 124,871 143,488 14.9%
Dongfeng Minivan Dongfeng Xiaokang 30,024 25,007 -16.7% 142,017 133,899 -5.7%

Note)Figures are based on local factory shipments.

(Source:MarkLines)