Chinese market to grow 7%; VW and GM target 4 million sales in 2015
VW to expand local production capacity up to 5 million in 2018; GM to follow
2015/03/27
- Summary
- CAAM forecasts 7% growth in 2015 vehicle sales in China
- Top 17 OEMs' sales targets in China greatly exceed CAAM's forecasts
- Foreign OEMs' vehicle sales results and forecasts in China
- Production Forecast by LMC Automotive: Chinese production to expand to 30 million in 2018
Summary
Vehicle sales in China in 2015 (on a factory shipment basis including commercial vehicles and exports) are forecast to increase by 7% year-over-year (y/y) to 25.13 million units in total according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM). Out of the total, sales of new-energy vehicles, which the Chinese government is committed to popularizing, are forecast to reach 200,000 units.
Meanwhile, 17 OEM groups, which account for over 97% of the 2014 vehicle sales in China, have announced their sales targets and plans for 2015. According to their plans, total 2015 vehicle sales will be between 26.3 and 27.2 million units, a 16 to 19.6% increase y/y, greatly exceeding the CAAM's forecasts (information obtained as of March 2015). Major foreign OEMs also have announced their sales plans, targeting increases from 11.1-12.5% y/y in terms of total vehicle sales.
2014 vehicle sales results in China totaled 23.49 million units. China maintained the top position in vehicle sales worldwide, and set a new record. The country's growth rate in vehicle sales, however, declined y/y, from a 13.9% rise in 2013 to only a 6.9% rise in 2014, reflecting a slowdown in China's economic growth.
The following gives sales results by vehicle type. While passenger car sales achieved a 9.9% increase y/y, this is still a decrease compared to 2013 sales and the result of slower growth in China. This is because the growth rate for sedans and hatchbacks substantially dropped, from 11.8% in 2013 to 3.1% in 2014, despite strong sales of MPVs and SUVs. Commercial vehicle sales represented a 6.5% decrease y/y due to sluggish sales of light-, medium- and heavy-duty trucks and midsize buses.
Vehicle exports from China in 2014 fell by 6.9% y/y to 910,000 units. This report provides the actual results of vehicle sales in 2014 and outlines the vehicle sales plans in China in 2015, by Chinese OEM group, by foreign OEM, and by Chinese brand.
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Related Reports:
* China: Vehicle sales forecast to grow over 12% in 2014 (Feb. 2014)
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