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Auto Industry Analysis Report

Jan. 07, 2006 No.434


Gasoline Engine Vehicles Account for 70% of Western European Passenger Vehicle Sales in Displacement Range of Under 1.8 Liters
Although the ratio of diesel engine vehicles is increasing in displacement range of 1.2-1.6 liters



  Total sales of new vehicles increased in 18 western European countries by 0.8% between January and October 2005. This resulted from the continued robust sales of trucks/buses, and the passenger car sales which have been steady since summer, after a decrease at the beginning of the year. The ratio of diesel engine (DE) vehicles relative to the total passenger car sales continued to increase between January and June 2005 to 49.2%, although the increase rate was not as high as before.

  The following describes the outline of sales of gasoline engine (GE) passenger cars in Western Europe, including those vehicles' displacement composition, and maximum power output/CO2 emission level by displacement. In this market, GE vehicles still account for as high as 50% of the total sales, though the ratio of DE vehicles is increasing.

Note: For engine composition of DE passenger cars sold in Western Europe, see MarkLines Report No.427 disclosed in December 2005, "Diesel-Powered Passenger Cars in Western Europe: the Ratio of Those with a Common Rail System Amounts to 75%. CO2 Emission of 154g/km" ( http://www.marklines.com/en/amreport/rep427_200512.jsp ).

■New vehicle sales in 18 Western European countries (1,000 units)
  1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Jan.-Oct.
2004
Jan.-Oct.
2005
PC
LCV+LBC
CV+Bus
13,416
1,496
282
14,369
1,672
329
15,066
1,805
395
14,747
1,908
405
14,818
1,860
392
14,399
1,802
354
14,213
1,757
350
14,524
1,922
372
12,336
1,594
313
12,374
1,653
329
Total 15,194 16,370 17,266 17,059 17,070 16,554 16,320 16,818 14,243 14,356
■Ratio of DE vehicles, and average engine displacement and maximum power output
in passenger car sales in 18 Western European countries
  1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Ratio of DE 22.3% 24.8% 28.4% 32.1% 36.0% 40.3% 43.7% 48.3% 49.2%
Displacement 1,662 1,672 1,691 1,703 1,728 1,740 1,743 1,746 1,735
Maximum output 68 70 71 72 76 77 79 81 82
Source: ACEAAssociation des Constructeurs Europeens Automobiles g.i.e.)
Note: 1. PC, LCV, LBC, CV represent passenger car, light commercial vehicle, microbus (3.5 tons or less), commercial vehicle (trucks over 3.5 tons), respectively. Trucks and buses over 16 tons are not included. The figures between January-October 2005 are preliminary figures.
2. Eighteen countries consist of 15 EU member countries excluding eight new member countries and three EFTA countries.
3. The figures in 2005 for ratio of DE vehicles, displacement (cc) and maximum power output (kw) indicate actual results between January-June 2005.


■More GE vehicles were sold in displacement range of under 1.8L in contrast to more DE vehicles sold in displacement range of over 1.9L

  An almost equal number of GE vehicles and DE vehicles were sold in 18 Western European countries. However, a significant tendency in sales ratio between GE and DE vehicles can be seen on the border between 1.8L and 1.9L displacement.

  Sales in UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain account for 80% of the total passenger car sales in the 18 countries. In these five major countries, more GE vehicles were sold in the displacement range of under 1.8L, while more DE vehicles were sold in the displacement range of over 1.9L.

  The 2004 passenger car sales in the displacement range of under 1.8L are comprised of 4.718 million GE vehicles and 1.913 million DE vehicles. The GE vehicles represent 70% of these total sales. 84% of GE passenger cars sold are categorized into the displacement range of under 1.8L (Sources: JATO Dynamics Ltd.).

■2004 Sales of GE/DE passenger cars by displacement in five major Western European countries
(1,000 units)
2004 Sales of GE/DE passenger cars by displacement in five major Western European countries
Source: JATO Dynamics Ltd.Note: Five major countries are the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.


■DE vehicle sales increased by one million over two years while GE vehicle sales decreased by one million

  In 2004, sales of DE passenger cars in the five major countries in Western Europe increased by approximately one million, compared to 2002, to 6.083 million. In contrast, sales of GE passenger cars decreased by almost one million, compared to 2002, to 5.641 million.

  The weighted average of engine displacement is 1.58L for GE vehicles and 1.92L for DE vehicles. The weighted average of maximum power output is 77.4 kW for GE vehicles and 83.8 kW for DE vehicles. Both the average displacement and maximum power output for DE vehicles surpass those of GE vehicles. DE vehicles are also superior to GE vehicles in terms of the weighted average of CO2 emission (an index for fuel efficiency in Europe), showing 154.8 g/km in contrast to 166.0 g/km for GE vehicles.

  Incidentally, ACEA voluntary target value for CO2 emission reduction is 165-170g/km for 2003 and 140g/km for 2008.

■Sales of GE passenger cars in five major Western European countries (units)
  2002 2003 2004 Jan.-Sep. 2005
UK 1,955,924 1,873,630 1,732,080 1,272,830
Germany 2,005,576 1,928,578 1,821,130 1,458,977
France 779,466 654,081 618,197 481,053
Italy 1,310,386 1,159,978 943,571 696,926
Spain 568,750 540,314 525,666 384,749
Total (5 countries) 6,620,102 6,156,581 5,640,644 4,294,535
Engine displacement (L) 1.57 1.57 1.58 1.58
Maximum output (kW) 74.6 75.6 77.4 78.2
CO2 emission (g/km) 172.3 170.5 166.0 167.9
■Sales of DE passenger cars in five major Western European countries
  2002 2003 2004 Jan.-Jun. 2005
UK 604,732 702,404 832,099 449,478
Germany 1,244,313 1,305,479 1,444,063 716,749
France 1,360,714 1,351,384 1,392,592 783,613
Italy 1,017,671 1,109,857 1,339,657 735,157
Spain 836,871 925,684 1,074,664 598,721
Total (5 countries) 5,064,301 5,394,808 6,083,075 3,283,718
Engine displacement (L) 1.98 1.96 1.92 1.90
Maximum output (kW) 80.4 82.1 83.8 85.3
CO2 emission (g/km) 156.4 156.4 154.8 154.3
Source: JATO Dynamics Ltd.
Note: 1. Engine displacement, maximum power output, and CO2 emission are the average of passenger cars sold in the five countries.
2. ACEA set its voluntary CO2 emission target in 1998 under the approval by European Commission.
(1) To introduce models with CO2 emission of 120g/km or less by 2000
(2) 2003 CO2 emission target of 165-170g/km
(3) To achieve a target of 140g/km by 2008 (25% improvement from 1995)
(4) To consider whether it is possible to achieve CO2 emission of 120g/km by 2003-2012.
JAMA and KAMA also participate in this voluntary agreement. The target year of 140g/km for JAMA/KAMA members is 2009.
Fuel efficiency target is monitored by auto manufacturer.
Incidentally, CO2 emission of 140g/km is equivalent to fuel efficiency of 17.0km/L by a simple conversion. (Taking into consideration the difference of measurement mode of fuel efficiency, it is regarded as being equivalent to 15.9km/L in the Japanese standard.)
3. All rights reserved of this table. For reprint permission, contact JATO Dynamics.

  GE vehicles, classified in the displacement range of under 1.8L, occupy the majority share of the sales. However, sales of these vehicles are decreasing. In contrast, the 2004 sales of DE vehicles showed a sharp increase in the 1.4-1.6L displacement range where GE vehicles have the biggest sales. The under 1.3L displacement range also had rapid growth, while the over 3.0L displacement range had moderate growth.

Note: At the end of this report, a detailed table of GE passenger car sales volume by displacement by 100cc is presented. In the detailed table, maximum power output/CO2 emission for each displacement are also appended.

■Sales of GE passenger cars by displacement range in five major countries in Western Europe
(1,000 units)
Sales of GE passenger cars by displacement range in five major countries in Western Europe
Source: JATO Dynamics Ltd.Note: Five major countries are the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.

■Sales of DE passenger cars by displacement range in five major countries in Western Europe
(1,000 units)
Sales of DE passenger cars by displacement range in five major countries in Western Europe
Source: JATO Dynamics Ltd.

■Sales of GE passenger cars in five major countries in Western Europe by engine displacement
  New passenger car sales (unit) Component ratio
2002 2003 2004 Jan.-Sep.
2005
2002 2003 2004 Jan.-Sep.
2005
~1.3L 2,442,167 2,269,162 1,994,890 1,490,919 36.9% 36.9% 35.4% 34.7%
1.4~1.6L 2,335,530 2,264,830 2,141,637 1,714,480 35.3% 36.8% 38.0% 39.9%
1.7~1.9L 697,205 632,054 585,834 383,831 10.5% 10.3% 10.4% 8.9%
2.0~2.4L 774,357 633,891 573,210 466,291 11.7% 10.3% 10.2% 10.9%
2.5~2.9L 140,871 117,828 107,752 66,287 2.1% 1.9% 1.9% 1.5%
3.0L~ 229,916 238,791 236,923 172,600 3.5% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0%
n.a. 56 25 398 127 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total 6,620,102 6,156,581 5,640,644 4,294,535 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: JATO Dynamics Ltd.
Note: 1. Five major countries are the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.
2. All rights reserved of this table. For reprint permission, contact JATO Dynamics.

■Sales of DE passenger cars in five major countries in Western Europe by engine displacement
  New passenger car sales (unit) Component ratio
2002 2003 2004 Jan.-Jun.
2005
2002 2003 2004 Jan.-Jun.
2005
~1.3L 29,414 79,114 270,254 166,153 0.6% 1.5% 4.4% 5.1%
1.4~1.6L 569,121 839,611 1,241,895 835,998 11.2% 15.6% 20.4% 25.5%
1.7~1.9L 2,144,437 2,017,198 1,913,558 855,490 42.3% 37.4% 31.5% 26.1%
2.0~2.4L 1,767,936 1,836,657 1,981,630 1,082,239 34.9% 34.0% 32.6% 33.0%
2.5~2.9L 467,980 440,720 392,526 196,447 9.2% 8.2% 6.5% 6.0%
3.0L~ 85,396 181,500 283,157 147,391 1.7% 3.4% 4.7% 4.5%
n.a. 17 8 55 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total 5,064,301 5,394,808 6,083,075 3,283,718 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Source: JATO Dynamics Ltd.
Note: 1. Five major countries are the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.
2. All rights reserved of this table. For reprint permission, contact JATO Dynamics.


■GE vehicles surpass DE vehicles in terms of maximum power output under the same displacement

  Given that GE vehicles and DE vehicles used the same displacement engine, the maximum power output for GE vehicles would be higher than that for DE vehicles. But, the 1.2L DE vehicles, which achieved a sharp increase in 2004 sales, offer as high a maximum power output as GE vehicles.

  DE vehicles offer lower CO2 emission (an index for fuel efficiency in Europe) than the GE vehicles in almost all displacement ranges. A significant difference in CO2 emission between DE and GE vehicles can be seen in the displacement range of under 2.0L where GE vehicles have the majority sales.

■Maximum power output/CO2 emission of GE/DE passenger cars with same engine displacement in the five major countries in Western Europe
Engine
Displacement
(L)
GE passenger cars DE passenger cars
New
passenger
car sales
(unit)
Maximum
output
(kW)
CO2
emission
(g/km)
New
passenger
car sales
(unit)
Maximum
output
(kW)
CO2
emission
(g/km)
1.1 597,977 46 140 0    
1.2 777,665 50 141 248,998 51 123
1.3 311,379 59 149 6,637 51 124
1.4 878,359 61 157 572,202 52 116
1.5 57,073 73 160 476,123 60 123
1.6 1,206,205 78 171 193,570 80 132
1.7 40,590 86 184 237,859 68 137
1.8 540,623 99 189 163,225 76 141
1.9 4,621 96 200 1,512,474 84 150
2.0 432,310 110 204 1,487,717 87 158
2.1 3,285 115 228 176,410 102 174
2.2 70,206 119 214 248,217 98 183
2.3 13,196 131 228 516 81 308
2.4 54,213 120 229 68,770 119 198
2.5 58,785 140 241 220,775 112 228
2.6 27,518 145 271 1 78  
2.7 9,076 146 252 113,985 123 222
2.8 2,506 146 266 16,058 109 243
2.9 9,867 177 279 41,707 112 239
3.0 59,759 167 262 207,761 150 224
3.1 4,452 188 257 1    
3.2 54,797 179 272 58,288 138 214
Note: The table covers new passenger cars sold in 2004 in the five major Western European countries.
Source: JATO Dynamics Ltd.
All rights reserved of this table. For reprint permission, contact JATO Dynamics.

(Detailed data)
Engine composition of new GE passenger cars sold in five major countries in Western Europe
Compiled from JATO Dynamics Ltd. Material (All rights reserved of this table. For reprint permission, contact JATO Dynamics.) The five major countries are the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. Maximum power output and CO2 emission are the weighted average excluding cars whose values are unknown.
Blank represents no sales or the maximum power output/CO2 emission is unknown.
The terms, Premium and Regular, at the two lowest rows indicate type of gasoline.
Engine
Disp.(L)
New passenger car sales (unit) Maximum output (kW) CO2 emission (g/km)
2002 2003 2004 Jan.-Sep.
2005
2002 2003 2004 Jan.-
Sep.
2005
2002 2003 2004 Jan.-
Sep.
2005
~0.7 70,647 76,007 70,727 45,455 41 46 47 47 116 115 115 116
0.8 44,659 26,444 22,314 17,367 37 37 38 38 161 161 159 141
0.9 53 20 24 18 31   48 29 137   145 145
1.0 384,314 274,640 214,804 161,547 44 45 45 47 140 136 134 130
1.1 726,660 680,996 597,977 452,794 46 46 46 47 145 143 140 139
1.2 829,543 890,460 777,665 561,114 49 50 50 50 144 142 141 141
1.3 386,291 320,595 311,379 252,624 52 57 59 59 157 151 149 146
1.4 893,222 902,961 878,359 649,555 58 59 61 61 158 158 157 157
1.5 58,405 47,673 57,073 67,754 67 71 73 72 166 165 160 155
1.6 1,383,903 1,314,196 1,206,205 997,171 76 77 78 79 172 172 171 171
1.7 71,868 42,297 40,590 49,208 89 87 86 86 187 188 184 172
1.8 598,789 580,111 540,623 333,684 96 99 99 100 192 191 189 191
1.9 26,548 9,646 4,621 939 97 97 96 93 197 194 200 200
2.0 562,392 468,236 432,310 383,903 106 108 110 112 208 205 204 198
2.1 15,263 12,220 3,285 1,139 115 114 115 117 221 221 228 229
2.2 106,125 89,519 70,206 36,134 115 116 119 118 218 216 214 209
2.3 36,614 20,651 13,196 7,896 136 135 131 124 230 230 228 232
2.4 53,963 43,265 54,213 37,219 119 121 120 120 232 232 229 230
2.5 70,121 65,085 58,785 41,320 136 140 140 145 236 234 241 229
2.6 35,789 26,381 27,518 10,643 128 133 145 145 256 260 271 263
2.7 14,118 11,987 9,076 7,892 149 148 146 154 263 257 252 240
2.8 8,578 4,879 2,506 1,250 147 147 146 155 263 263 266 262
2.9 12,265 9,496 9,867 5,182 154 165 177 170 250 262 279 263
3.0 69,725 71,061 59,759 37,973 165 166 167 173 256 251 262 246
3.1 10 6 4,452 5,372 110 104 188 188     257 257
3.2 54,126 56,451 54,797 25,305 182 180 179 187 274 268 272 275
3.3 3,526 2,796 1,673 1,289 136 136 146 150 296 304 315 291
3.4 566 291 128 252 148 139 138 204 289 284 298 257
3.5 3,777 6,907 19,087 31,830 171 180 194 193 294 284 267 258
3.6 19,339 14,929 13,408 6,040 239 245 247 242 277 290 300 284
3.7 4,844 15,180 11,105 5,061 170 182 179 178 312 290 288 283
3.8 96 39 2,252 6,780 141 142 260 261 285 300 277 278
3.9 63 67 65 8 141 141 144 140 290 290 290  
4.0 7,145 2,835 1,996 1,813 194 153 157 191 320 346 347 303
4.1       1                
4.2 10,711 20,039 15,288 10,907 256 259 259 262 325 313 322 332
4.3 4,102 2,442 1,949 2,665 201 205 210 276 292 289 279 322
4.4 13,672 8,925 16,682 6,813 225 225 238 237 316 326 310 308
4.5 611 9,703 8,868 5,636 275 272 273 270 367 366 367 369
4.6 2,563 1,561 728 799 227 249 212 220 363 352 321 323
4.7 2,767 1,867 854 596 178 180 183 176 388 381 380 368
4.8 80 70 985 1,897 279 275 265 268 308 306 324 289
4.9 1,045 335 30 6 294 293 293 267 340 342 340  
5.0 20,683 12,273 10,389 8,464 224 225 233 272 305 293 294 306
5.2 2 4 11 38 165 149 284 309        
5.3 482 382 230 172 201 206 211 218 358 345 345 344
5.4 4,771 5,031 3,612 3,206 325 341 331 320 336 320 317 312
5.5 512 1,433 845 952 363 368 366 312 369 361 377 304
5.6     9 3     229 230        
5.7 919 892 1,501 1,954 286 312 309 295 338 381 415 377
5.8 526 4 21 1 270 270 266   322 320    
5.9 693 677 924 1,985 318 322 328 334 437 434 427 407
6.0 2,007 2,087 4,733 4,250 310 321 373 366 374 357 404 375
6.1     1                  
6.2 104 114 85 87 426 424 426 426     500 500
6.3   16 14 10                
6.4       1                
6.5~ 449 374 442 434 317 327 331 341 472 469 449 460
n.a. 56 25 398 127 98   309          
Total 6,620,102 6,156,581 5,640,644 4,294,535 75 76 77 78 172 170 166 168
premium 2,018,573 1,982,091 2,024,257 1,531,136 84 87 90 91 181 181 221 179
regular 4,601,529 4,174,490 3,616,387 2,763,399 71 70 70 71 168 166 163 162


Copyright(C) 2006 MarkLines Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.